Chapter 425: A Creditor's Woes |
Relying on the African people to resist British invaders is highly unrealistic. If they had such strong combat capabilities, the colonial era would have ended long ago.
However, the pitfalls must still be dug. No matter how effective they may be, at the very least, they can delay the British expansion.
Every country’s expansion has its limits, and the British Empire, the world’s foremost colonial empire, is no exception.
Population is a fatal weakness. The British Isles combined have only 30 million people. Among the four major European powers, they rank dead last. With the completion of industrialization in France and Austria, there is an astonishing change happening in the balance of power among nations.
There is no need to wait until the twentieth century; even now, in terms of the total domestic economy, the British are becoming the third in Europe and the fifth in the world.
Of course, they are still the world’s leading industrial power. During this era, agriculture still held a very significant proportion of the total economy, so much so that Britain even ranked behind India.
It’s not surprising; having a large population doesn’t necessarily mean great strength, at least in terms of total economic output.
Unfortunately, total economic output does not equate to national power. What determines the strength of a country is industry, and the British Empire remains the world’s most powerful nation.
However, in terms of expansion, they are at a disadvantage. The population of Britain is less than two-thirds that of France (including Sardinia) and less than half that of Austria (including the Balkans). Among this population are several million disaffected Irish people, who constantly seek independence.
After the Near East War, the British government began to avoid European wars, which was quite understandable.
Maintaining this colonial empire is not easy, with thousands of colonists dying each year. If they were to engage in a few more large-scale wars, the British would be unable to sustain it.
This is the opportunity Franz sees: to create trouble for the British in the colonies. On the surface, it may seem insignificant, but in reality, small efforts add up, gradually depleting their manpower.
This Ethiopian War is a good opportunity. If it can inflict casualties of over ten thousand on the British, Franz will be more than satisfied.
Defeating the British is out of the question. The British Army is not the Italian Army; such a joke of the century cannot happen.
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While the British troops were on the way to Ethiopia, the situation at the London Conference changed. The Russians’ diplomatic skills were really quite unimpressive.
Sweden did indeed support them, but it wasn’t due to the Russians’ efforts. The Kingdom of Denmark played a significant role.
Favoring kin over reason, the Kingdom of Denmark was about to become a member of the Nordic Federation, so naturally, Sweden, as the leader, needed to consider their sentiments.
From now on, the Kingdom of Prussia gained another enemy, the soon-to-be-established Nordic Federation.
Of course, this enemy posed a minimal threat. The Danes wouldn’t dominate the new government; at most, it would result in hostility but not to the point of triggering a war.
The German Federal Empire indeed felt threatened by Prussia, but it was of no use. The Russians failed to secure their support, and in the end, they chose neutrality.
As for the remaining nations, it goes without saying that Switzerland maintained its renowned ‘perpetual neutrality’ and did not need to be appeased, while all the other countries supported Prussia.
The Principality of Montenegro and Greece were among Russia’s few supporters too, the former having depended on Russian patronage for years, and the latter opportunistically aligning with the perceived greater force.
Prussia is thousands of miles away, so offending them doesn’t matter. But the Russians are close by, so the Greeks dare not offend them.
Looking at the supporting countries, the Russians were not only outnumbered but also outmatched in terms of influence.
To prevent the Russians from losing too badly, Wessenberg had to grudgingly propose reducing the number of negotiating representatives.
Besides the three mediating countries — Britain, France, and Austria — only the belligerents attended, while the rest were mere spectators.
Fortunately, the Russian representative, Ivanov, was clever enough to first send away the four Central Asian countries and the Eastern Empire by signing armistice agreements.
Russia’s might was still apparent; after satisfying their own interests, these countries decisively chose silence. As for Prussia’s allies, sorry, they never truly formed alliances, so no obligations existed.
Seeing the situation was not favorable, the Ottoman Empire also backed down. The Russians abandoned the territory they had claimed in the Caucasus during the last war and retreated slightly, ending the war between the two nations. (Note: this refers to present-day Georgia.)
By July, only Prussia and Poland were left. Compared to the concessions in other regions, the Russian government took a completely different attitude in Eastern Europe.
To begin with, the Russian government refused to accept the proposed delineation of Polish territories, considering the cession of Lithuania and portions of Belarus as the absolute maximum it could concede.
Yet Prussian ambitions extended to claiming Latvia too, carefully avoiding any demands on Estonia given its precarious proximity to St. Petersburg, with the Prussian authorities avoiding riling up the Russians even more.
Prussian and Polish representatives also demanded the entire Belarus, clearly having reached an agreement to carve it up.
Polish demands also encompassed Ukraine, principally as Volyn had traditionally stretched into Kyiv’s bounds. But this excludes Lviv and its surroundings as western Ukraine remained an Austrian sphere of influence at this time.
Agreeing to these conditions would mean the Russian Empire losing 860,000 square kilometers of land, 21 million people, and 30% of its industry.
Additionally, the Russian Empire would lose its population advantage over Austria. After all, Central Asia had already gained independence, and they had also ceded significant territory in the Far East and the Caucasus.
With less land, the population would naturally decrease as well. Fortunately, these regions were sparsely populated; apart from Central Asia’s 5-6 million people, the other two areas had only around 1-2 million each.
Eastern Europe was different; it was the foundation of the Russian Empire. Every piece of land was precious, so the Russian government would not give it up easily.
The conference reached another deadlock, prompting the British, French, and Austrian representatives to hold a private meeting. There was no shame in it; weakening Russia was in all three countries’ interests.
After all, the Russian Empire was too vast. Once it became industrialized, everyone’s interests would suffer.
At the same time, France and Austria did not want to see the Kingdom of Prussia grow stronger. On this point, the attitudes of Britain and France were quite the opposite; Britain wanted Prussia to cause trouble for France and Austria.
Meanwhile, the French wanted to support Poland, while Austria held an opposing view.
They would not allow others to meddle in their backyard.
To prevent Poland from rising, Austria didn’t hesitate to support Prussia in obtaining Lithuania, blocking Poland’s access to the sea.
This was also them sowing discord. With the issue of access to the sea unresolved, relations between Prussia and Poland would inevitably break down.
Of course, they could exchange territories, but this was highly unlikely. The Poles wouldn’t give up Warsaw just to have access to the sea.
Prussia wouldn’t fight hard only to gain nothing in the end. Their geographic location made expansion into Lithuania their only option.
The conflicts between the three countries of Britain, France, and Austria made the negotiations even more complicated.
By summer, the smell of gunpowder in Eastern Europe had become thick again. If they still could not reach an agreement, war would break out again.
Don’t look at the fact that the Prussians had the upper hand on the battlefield — they now have no money! Once war broke out again, it would still be the British who would shoulder the bill in the end.
The British government was no fool, they were constantly calculating the costs. Now that their goal of suppressing Russia had been achieved, continuing further would bring them little benefit even if Russia was crushed.
Don’t just look at how Russia and Austria are allies. When in decline, allies can also be dangerous. What if the Prussians get lucky and win another major battle, causing the Russian government to collapse directly? Who knows if Austria would take the opportunity to kick them while they were down?
The shrewd British would not spend money and effort only for their competitors to reap the benefits.
Moreover, they have already lent a lot of money to Prussia and Poland, and their debts are constantly increasing. The possibility of them becoming bad debts in the future is also increasing.
To end this war, the three powers of Britain, France, and Austria must first reach an agreement. Otherwise, if everyone kept stabbing each other in the back and fanning the flames from within, the war could reignite at any moment.
For the sake of the pound, Raistlin must also persuade France and Austria to join forces and put pressure on the others to end this war.
It’s not just the British who are worried about this; France and Austria are also concerned. They are all creditors, but Britain and France have mainly lent money to Prussia and Poland, while Austria has lent money to Russia.
Currently, the British have lent out the most, with a total amount of 320 million pounds; Austria is close behind, with a total of 240 million pounds; the French have the least, but it is still 120 million pounds.
Whether or not they admit it, this war is actually a game of capital. There is no doubt that the masterminds behind the scenes are all winners. Everyone was working together to manipulate the market.
Even if all these debts turn to bad debts, they can still recoup their costs elsewhere. Of course, no one wants to do that. Why should loans that can be recovered turn into bad debts?
Don’t look at the abundant collateral of the debtor countries. If something goes wrong, these collaterals may not be able to be cashed out.
Take Poland for example. If the Polish government collapses, who will Britain and France ask for money?
In comparison, Austria still has an advantage. Russia is close by, and if necessary, they can still cut off a piece of land to make up for their losses.
The French can also set their sights on the Rhineland. After all, taking it over as payment for the loans they lent is a reasonable excuse.
Meanwhile, the British are miserable. Even if others dare to cede land, the question is, do they dare to take it?
The prerequisite for cashing out various taxes, minerals, and road rights is to ensure the stability of the debtor’s government.
This means that after the war, they will continue to lend money to Prussia and Poland. Otherwise, these two impoverished governments will either declare bankruptcy and default on their debts or collapse due to financial crises.
Of course, high risk comes with high rewards. The British have already made a fortune in this war.
Not only have they gained world hegemony, but they have also gained a few underlings, ensured the security of India, and completed their strategic layout of Eurasia.
