Chapter 435: When It Rains, It Pours |
It is also a good thing for the Habsburgs not to participate in the struggle for the throne. By standing as an observer, they can make the most advantageous decisions.
Besides, the current Kingdom of Spain has a lot of messy issues, and solving the internal problems won’t be easy.
Throughout history, ministers have had a common problem: they dislike strong monarchs. Europe’s well-established inheritance system alleviates this to some extent, as it leaves them less room to maneuver.
The selection of a new king in Spain this time is different. An outsider king will be dependent on the support of local power factions, so the eventual king of Spain will likely be an incompetent one.
Having already seen an unfortunate figure like the Emperor of Mexico, if another incompetent king arises from them, Franz seriously doubts how much of the House of Habsburg’s glory will remain.
After all, both the palm and the back of the hand are made of flesh. Setting aside his young son, both of Franz’s brothers and several cousin princes have equal chances, and Franz cannot intervene.
TN: both the palm and the back of the hand are made of flesh = to both be of equal importance/to value both equally
Spain is already difficult to manage. Bringing in an incompetent king would only complicate matters further.
Make no mistake, the House of Habsburg has produced quite a few flawed members. Besides the idealistic Maximilian, there are also many playboys who indulge in eating, drinking, and having fun.
Prime Minister Felix said, “Your Majesty, from the current situation, the struggle for the Spanish throne won’t be resolved in a short time.
In addition, the Polish throne dispute has yet to be resolved, so it’s likely that the European situation will become increasingly tense.
To deal with the upcoming complex situation, we need to prepare in advance to avoid being caught off guard.”
Will there be a war on the European continent? No one can answer this question, as an accidental trigger can lead to conflict in an instant.
From the perspective of the Austrian government, a war in Europe at this time is certainly undesirable.
The Second Industrial Revolution has just begun, and Austria has finally reached the forefront of the world. If a war breaks out, all efforts will be in vain.
Franz can control Austria, but he cannot control the rest of the European countries. With tensions running so high, if some fool provokes a war, it would be a disaster.
In the original timeline, the struggle for the Spanish throne led to the Franco-Prussian War. Now, the Prussians don’t have the guts to face the French, but who can guarantee that the French won’t cause trouble themselves?
These days, the French already have a sense of being second only to God. The British can suppress them at sea, but on land, they disregard everyone else.
If the French invaded Austria, Franz would be delighted, as he could easily defeat them. However, if they attack Prussia, the German Federal Empire, or Belgium, it becomes a more complicated issue.
In a battle on their home soil, Franz is confident of victory. In a cross-border conflict, the outcome is uncertain until the battle is fought.
There are many factors to consider in war, and the strength that can be deployed varies in different regions.
The Russians serve as a negative example: constrained by transportation, they couldn’t leverage their numerical advantage and ended up being counterattacked.
In the original timeline, France and Austria are negative examples as well; neither managed to fully deploy their strength before being defeated.
The Franco-Austrian alliance is even less reliable than the Russo-Austrian alliance, as it is a temporary coalition formed out of necessity. There is no traditional friendship between them as their history is one of constant warfare.
Since the Middle Ages, the Habsburgs have been at odds with the French, engaging in a prolonged struggle.
During Charles V’s era, he managed to “punch the Ottomans and kick the French.”
Of course, there were more instances where they were beaten. Overall, both sides had victories and defeats, as evidenced by the fact that both still exist today.
Unburdened by the past, tearing up the alliance did not present any pressure. The notion of credibility had been abandoned by monarchs in the wake of Maximilian I.
So far, Franz hasn’t broken any treaties; if he’s lucky, he might set a new record.
Currently, everyone’s credibility is based on insufficient interests. Once the stakes are high enough, alliances become mere scraps of paper.
“Begin limited preparations for war, such as increasing reserve training, but do not blindly expand the number of troops. This will avoid provoking other countries and complicating the situation further.
The likelihood of a full-scale war breaking out on the European continent is very low right now. There is no need to be overly tense. Even if the situation suddenly gets out of control, with everyone unprepared, we won’t be at a disadvantage.”
Franz does not believe that a major war will break out now. Unless everyone collectively loses their minds, any conflict that arises can be forcibly suppressed.
On this issue, the British are Austria’s allies, as both have a vested interest in maintaining a balanced and stable Europe.
The butterfly effect is powerful. In the original timeline, Amadeo I, who succeeded the throne with French support, now faced strong opposition from Napoleon III.
There is no way around it. Napoleon III annexed the Kingdom of Sardinia, and even though he did not immediately depose the Sardinian royal family, they had already become enemies.
To dominate the continent, the French first needed to stabilize Spain. Napoleon III will not allow an anti-French Spanish king to emerge, which directly eliminates Amadeo as a candidate.
One candidate after another was being eliminated, and Franz began to feel some sympathy for Spain. Almost all the highly supported candidates have been rejected by the French.
If Spain were in its prime, it wouldn’t care about the French attitude. But now, if they forcefully install a king strongly opposed by the French, Napoleon III will certainly intervene militarily.
The provisional government doesn’t have the confidence to defy the French and has to keep choosing. With the highly supported candidates eliminated, even if a less popular candidate inherits the throne, it will be hard to gain widespread acceptance.
France hasn’t done anything yet, but Spain is already on the verge of disaster. A king with insufficient support will struggle to control the country, leading to future troubles.
Franz has no intention of intervening. The French have already deviated from their path, and whether or not the Spanish restrain them, the end result will be the same.
Without Spanish restraint, the French can continue down their self-destructive path even further. Since that’s the case, why complicate matters?
The effort must be proportional to the reward. Austria’s resources are not unlimited. If too much is invested in the Spanish issue, naturally, less will be available for other areas.
…
When it rains, it pours.
1868 is destined to be a tough year for the Spanish people. In the first half of the year, they suffered from a severe economic crisis, and in the second half, they were engulfed in war.
Before the revolution, the Kingdom of Spain was in a dire state: land annexation was rampant, leaving farmers with no land to cultivate; urban factories went bankrupt in large numbers, and the streets were filled with unemployed people.
After the revolution succeeded, the situation did not improve but worsened, with the added issue of a breakdown in public order.
The provisional government lacked both governing experience and the ability to control the situation. As soon as they took power, they naively abolished Isabella II’s police force.
With the executioners who suppressed the revolution gone, Madrid’s public order collapsed. The insurgent army did not represent a disciplined force; more often than not, they were a mob.
While the Spanish insurgents were better at fighting than a mere mob, in terms of maintaining order, they were indeed just rabble. The police, whom they had hated, were in fact the guardians of order.
Without constraints, crimes such as robbery, rape, and murder became rampant in Madrid.
Even the worst order is better than none. Previously, the people of Madrid did not understand this, but now they finally do.
As a result, Madrid became the most chaotic capital in all of Europe. The insurgent army, initially welcomed by the people, quickly lost their support in the shortest time possible.
The provisional government was too preoccupied to deal with these minor issues, focusing instead on the major task of selecting a new king. Other problems were deemed secondary.
However, a major issue soon arose. In October 1868, a large-scale uprising erupted in Cuba, thousands of miles away. The rebel forces grew rapidly, and the Cuban crisis began.
This was a heavy blow for Spain. Cuba was one of Spain’s wealthiest colonies, providing vast amounts of wealth each year.
Previously, the Americans had offered one hundred million dollars to purchase Cuba, an offer the Spanish government had outright rejected without consideration.
Clearly, Cuba’s value far exceeded this amount. Since Spain’s decline, the wealth from the Cuban colony had been crucial in maintaining Spain’s status as a great power.
Not only was the government alarmed, but many domestic vested interests were also deeply concerned. Much of the wealth from Cuba ended up in private pockets, and without this income, many Spanish nobles would face difficult times.
The newly established Francisco administration encountered its first major challenge. If the Cuban crisis was not handled properly, the Kingdom of Spain would suffer severe financial and economic repercussions.
Support from capitalists and nobles for the government would also be affected. In any case, Francisco had to suppress the rebellion.
Undoubtedly, this rebellion was not simple and had international involvement. Otherwise, it would have been impossible for the local natives to suddenly rise up.
Although the United States had split in two, this did not mean they were complacent. They had previously supported the Mexican Civil War and had incited Native American tribes in Central America to oppose Austria.
Now it’s Spain’s turn to be unlucky. Among the four great powers that interfered in the American Civil War, Spain was the easiest to bully. The Americans began to test the waters, starting with Spain.
Previously, support for the Mexican rebels and inciting Central American Indian tribes to revolt were carried out covertly.
The execution was handled by arms smugglers, leaving no evidence that could implicate the federal government. However, the situation changed when they began to stir up trouble in Cuba, and their actions became much more overt.
Almost everyone knew that the Americans were supporting the Cuban independence movement. The level of support was so significant that it couldn’t be hidden.
This was a consequence of the economic crisis. Britain and Austria had been dumping goods into the United States, leading to an economic crisis there.
The Confederate States of America were somewhat better off since their industrial capacity was not significant, so the impact was not too severe. However, the federal government suffered greatly, to the point of being unbearable.
In New York, people were even committing suicide by jumping from buildings. New Yorkers had to be cautious when walking past Wall Street, lest they be hit and killed by someone jumping from above.
At this time, a rebellion against Spanish rule erupted in Cuba. To overcome the economic crisis, federal capitalists turned their attention to Cuba.
