Chapter 420: Carefully Planning Out the Future |
On the battlefield, Prussia now held the upper hand, and at the strong urging of the Prussian government, the negotiation venue was set in London.
Initially, they wanted to hold it in Berlin, but the Russians did not agree. The Russian government still wanted to save some face.
The Russians were still unconvinced, they insisted on holding the negotiation venue in a neutral country to prove that they had not lost the war.
This was self-deception, but it also involved political maneuvering. The alternative negotiation venues were Vienna and London. Now that the negotiation venue was set in London, it meant that the Russian government was at a disadvantage in this round of political machinations.
With a loud “bang,” Russian Foreign Minister Ivanov threw a cup of coffee on the floor, splattering it all over the floor.
Since the defeat on the front lines, he has been visiting European countries to seek diplomatic support, but the results have been very disappointing. The “good” reputation of the Russian Empire has directly put most European countries on the opposite side.
Originally, they were prepared to negotiate separately with each of the warring countries, using diplomacy to defeat them one by one. Now, with the British intervening and bringing everyone together in London, an anti-Russian alliance has emerged.
The Prussians acted as the leader of the alliance, while the British coordinated the interests of all parties and formed a joint delegation to negotiate with the Russians.
“Send a telegram to the country to explain the situation and ask the government to make a decision as soon as possible.”
This means that the top officials of the Russian government will have to take the blame for this defeat and be responsible for the failure of the war, while Alexander II will be cleared of any responsibility.
There is no such thing as making them scapegoats. The failure of this war is actually the fault of the bureaucracy, especially the logistics part, and there will be a reckoning after the war.
The top government officials are also to blame for the defeat, and many will be implicated and dismissed from their positions. This includes Ivanov himself, who will have to retire after the war.
To be able to retire in peace, the Russian government must first be preserved. The rebels’ slogan is “Clear the Emperor’s Side, Purge the Corrupt Officials,” and they are all the so-called corrupt officials. If the rebels take power, they are doomed.
Everyone is from a noble background, so a temporary setback in politics is nothing. They can still be reinstated in a few years. If that doesn’t work, there is always the next generation. Preserving the Tsar was preserving their own interests.
…
Schönbrunn Palace, Franz asked with concern, “Have we figured out the purpose of the British?”
With the major warring countries gathered in London, the diplomatic leverage was also gradually tilting towards the British. The position of the British government became crucial to this negotiation.
To some extent, the British are also robbing Austria of its interests. If they negotiate separately, the negotiations on the Prusso-Russian War and the Russo-Turkish War must first be approved by Vienna.
Now that the negotiations are bundled together, and given that Austria’s influence in Central Asia and the Far East is limited, its diplomatic discourse power has also been reduced.
Franz was not worried about missing this opportunity to expand his diplomatic influence. Now was not the time to take the lead, and increasing his international influence prematurely might not be a good thing.
However, it was still very important to figure out the British plan. Franz was not willing to be led by the nose.
He had already planned the paths for the Russians, Prussians, and Ottomans, but now that the British had intervened and interrupted, the future direction had become unclear again.
His political foresight advantage was now gone, and Franz could only rely on his own strength to make political maneuvers.
Foreign Minister Wessenberg replied, “The British government wants to eliminate the threat posed by the Russians to them completely. Our preliminary judgment is that they should do four things:
First, let Central Asia become independent to eliminate the threat to India;
Second, support the Kingdom of Prussia to annex the Baltic region, enhance the strength of this chess piece, and enable them to have the ability to defend themselves;
Third, let Poland become an independent country and cause us trouble;
Fourth, interrupt the expansion of Russia in the Far East, and ensure that the British are the only dominant force in the East.”
Of the four points, only Polish independence made Austria uncomfortable. The others were within Franz’s acceptable range. Austria had been working on assimilation for many years, and Polish independence would have some impact, but it was also within control.
Even if some cause trouble, they could be exiled collectively. It’s not like this was something Franz had never done before. If the people were gone, the problem would be gone too.
The trouble was Poland’s self-destructive tendencies. It likely wouldn’t be long before they make territorial demands on Austria.
There were already such calls during the provisional government period, but they were temporarily suppressed because they were busy fighting the Russians.
After pondering for a moment, Franz made a decision. Polish independence was unstoppable and there was no need to interfere.
Shouting slogans didn’t matter. Anyway, Franz wouldn’t pay attention to them. If they got impatient, he would just use force to resolve the conflict.
The possibility of a military conflict in the short term was not high as the gap in strength between the two sides was serious. The Polish provisional government took over a mess and did not have the guts to challenge Austria.
But who knows about the future? Once they have solved their internal problems and someone encourages them from behind, they might just do something stupid.
“If it’s just this, we can acquiesce. Prussia and Poland can have a larger territory. The more they take now, the stronger the Russian government’s desire for revenge in the future.
As the war ended, the Prussian-Polish contradictions should also arise. Add fuel to the fire. Lithuania was once part of Greater Poland, let the Polish nationalists fight for it with Prussia.”
This is how international contradictions arise. You bury a nail of conflict, I bury a nail of conflict, and in the end, there are nails everywhere, and international disputes arise.
Now that conflicts are latent in Russia, Prussia, and Poland, in the future, instigating these three countries will turn them into mortal enemies.
As the three countries fight each other, Austria’s northern frontier will be stabilized. No matter how the international situation changes, Franz can find at least one ally.
The only regret is that the Ottoman Empire did not perform well this time and did not complete the script designed for them, otherwise, Franz could have gone to the Holy Land to be crowned.
Franz didn’t lack crowns, but the religious significance of Jerusalem was different! If he recovered it, Franz would be a saint of the Christian world, which would bring him great prestige.
Now that the Ottoman Empire is still strong, Franz will naturally not make a move. Jerusalem cannot bring about an increase in national strength. Spending hundreds of millions of military expenses for vanity is still too much of a price to pay.
The global repercussions have to be weighed too. Mishandling it could allow others to exploit the circumstances for their own gain, rendering it an utterly fruitless endeavor.
For example, the biggest winner of the Russo-Prussian War was the British. They not only suppressed their competitor, the Russian Empire, and solved the land threat to India, but also supported several new chess pieces.
The soon-to-be-established Nordic Federation, Poland, and several khanates in Central Asia are all chess pieces created by the British.
And the price they paid was just loans that will still be repaid. In simple terms, the Prussians fought a war for the British but still had to pay for their own military expenses.
Because of the debt, the finances of the Kingdom of Prussia will inevitably fall into the hands of the British in the future. If properly handled, it will be difficult for the Kingdom of Prussia to shake off British influence.
The gains of the war have superficially given the Kingdom of Prussia a path to become a strong country. Nonetheless, that path remains rife with obstacles, compelling them to forge alliances with Poland and the German Federal Empire.
This is comparable in difficulty to the unification of the smaller German states by Prussia in the original timeline.
It’s not that there’s no chance at all. At least the Russians are crippled and will be unable to interfere in their actions for a decade or two, so there is no need to find ways to appease the Russians.
As for France and Austria, it’s the same as the original timeline. The problem cannot be solved without a fight. Neither of the two will just watch as a powerful Prussia rises.
Prime Minister Felix said, “Your Majesty, it is necessary for us to forcefully reclaim Silesia. After this war, the strength of the Kingdom of Prussia will inevitably increase. To avoid the emergence of a powerful Prussia, we must intervene.
If possible, it would be best to reclaim the Prussian-occupied Saxon territories as well to weaken the strength of the Kingdom of Prussia.”
This is indeed a way. As long as Silesia and Prussian Saxony are taken from Prussia, then the two duchies of Schleswig-Holstein that the Prussians have gained this time will be equivalent to nothing.
This is just on the surface. In terms of resources and industrial development potential, the value of these regions far exceeds that of the two duchies of Schleswig-Holstein.
Then the only gain of the Kingdom of Prussia this time would be the Baltic region. After subtracting the losses in the war, their actual gains are very little.
The Baltic region is not small, and the resources are not bad, but there is no main ethnic population. Unless the Prussian government adopts a diversified approach, assimilation will be a problem.
Without solving this problem, the increase in strength of the Kingdom of Prussia will merely be superficial. Austria’s move now is akin to pulling out their roots.
Franz thought for a while and said, “It is not easy to achieve this step, and the Prussian government will not compromise easily. In the current international situation, it is not convenient for us to use military force directly.
Relying on diplomatic means alone to make the Kingdom of Prussia make concessions, this possibility is almost zero.”
This is a fact, the Prussian government is not so weak that it will cede land when asked.
Using military means to coerce would damage Austria’s international image, arouse the jealousy of European countries, and isolate Austria diplomatically.
Therefore, from the very beginning, Franz did not plan to reclaim Silesia, let alone Prussian Saxony.
Others are afraid of the rise of the Kingdom of Prussia, but Franz is not afraid. It takes time to consolidate power, and there is no doubt that he will not give the Kingdom of Prussia that much time.
Franz has always believed that the best way to defeat an enemy is not to go to war directly; rather, it is to put constant pressure on the opponent and let them make mistakes under pressure.
The Kingdom of Prussia’s reckless provocation of this war is a manifestation of its inability to withstand pressure. Having chosen to rupture trade relations, the first step has been taken, is the second step far away then?
After the enemy has made a mistake, the price to pay for making a move will be much smaller. Without the Kingdom of Prussia, what excuse would Franz find to attack the German Federal Empire?
It should be known that the German Federal is very well-behaved, and the vast majority of federal states have a good relationship with Austria, so there is no opportunity for Franz to solve the problem by force.
Internal problems are far more difficult to solve than external problems, and the emperor should still have the support of the people. The same applies to the Kingdom of Prussia. If it cannot win the hearts of the people, then it is better not to even try.
Franz did not want to create a band of radicals constantly causing destruction. The lessons of history told him that any emperor who ignored the hearts of the people would pay a heavy price in the end.
Prime Minister Felix replied, “It is indeed not easy, but we still need to try it. Even if we can’t get it back in the end, we must let the people see the government’s determination to reclaim its former lands.”
The “people” he mentioned obviously refer not only to their countrymen but also to the Saxon government. Since the outbreak of the Russo-Prussian War, the Saxon government has been working hard to reclaim the Prussian Saxon territories. The Austrian government must also consider the wishes of the Saxon people.
In addition to Saxony, there are many Austrians who still think about Silesia, including many people in the Vienna court who advocate its recovery.
Originally, their approach was to secretly support the Russians and use them to reclaim these lands. Now that the Russian government has been defeated, this plan fell through.
These people have started lobbying the Austrian government again, and it is obvious that Prime Minister Felix has also been influenced, or he himself is also a supporter of reclaiming Silesia.
Although there is not much hope, he still wants to try it. If it fails, it will be nothing more than a waste of time for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs but it will not be a total loss. If it succeeds, they will benefit greatly from it.
After sorting out the ins and outs, Franz nodded to indicate his acquiescence.
