Chapter 421: Junkers VS Officials + Capitalists |
In March 1867, Austria conducted a large-scale military exercise on the Austro-Prussian border, frightening the Prussians.
Having just finished the Russo-Prussian War, they were busy licking their wounds and had no courage for another Prusso-Austrian War.
If war broke out at this point, not only would they have to give up all the gains from the previous war, but even self-preservation would be difficult.
In the Berlin Palace, Foreign Minister Mackeit said, “The Austrians are just flexing their muscles. They won’t start a war at this time.
Once a war breaks out, the Russians will certainly continue the fight. The Russian government can just follow behind and reap the benefits, regaining Poland and the Baltic region.
This is not what the Austrian government wants to see. A strong Russian Empire is not in their interests. The Austro-Russian alliance is just a temporary union of interests. Sooner or later, they will clash over European supremacy.
And then there is the current international situation, which the Austrian government cannot ignore. No European country wants to see a domineering Austria. If they start a war now, they will be isolated.
If the French attack the Rhineland after the war breaks out, will the Austrian government intervene or not?
If they intervene, it could very well lead to a full-scale war between France and Austria. If they don’t intervene, how can they claim to be the leader of the German states?”
However, as long as the Prussian government was shameless enough, there was still a chance to pit Austria against France and reverse the current passive situation.
Once the French invaded the Rhineland, the Prussian government could directly admit defeat and join the new Holy Roman Empire, demanding that Austria defend the territorial integrity of Germany.
This would ignite a Franco-Austrian War, and the situation would change. If the French gained the upper hand or the war dragged on, Prussia could switch sides again.
Don’t doubt the bottom line of politicians. As long as the interests are big enough, there is nothing they cannot do.
The backbone of the Kingdom of Prussia is the Junker aristocracy. Even if the Austrian government wanted to buy them off, it couldn’t afford the price.
Behind the scenes, the two sides have already been in contact. If Franz is willing to compromise, the German territories can be unified at any time.
The Junker aristocrats oppose joining the new Holy Roman Empire only for the sake of their own interests. If Prussia can achieve the same status as Austria and guarantee their interests, then the two can merge at any time.
Obviously, this is impossible. If a compromise is reached, the new Holy Roman Empire will be divided again.
A mountain cannot have two tigers. If there are two of them, then it will become Prussia leading a group of small principalities to fight against Austria within the empire.
From the very beginning, Franz had made a decision — the rights of the principalities had to be restricted.
After so many years of hard work, he had only just regained control of diplomacy, coinage, command of the army, and some financial power. How could he hand it over again?
Minister of the Army and the Navy Roon questioned, “This is just your wishful thinking and does not represent the position of the Austrian government.
Moreover, Austria became the leader of Germany based on strength, not so-called public opinion. They gained strength first and then gained popular support.
The influence of nationalism is indeed great, but it is not enough to sway the decisions of the Austrian government. Exchanging the Rhineland for the unification of Germany, is that really a loss for the Austrians?
Remember, Austria has always been wary of us. Among the many states of Germany, only we pose a threat to their strength.”
As the representative of the military, Roon was an advocate of the supremacy of the military. This was determined by the national conditions of the Kingdom of Prussia, and everyone became a supporter of it.
Roon did not value Austria’s influence. In his view, strength was paramount. Since Austria has sufficient strength, other problems do not matter.
As long as Germany can be unified, losing the Rhineland is no big deal. At most, the people will curse them for a while. In the future, as long as it is recovered, these problems can all be washed away.
This was not just his personal opinion. Many people shared the same view. Some civil groups are even advocating the theory of “unification at a cost”, that is: paying a certain price in exchange for national unification.
Specifically, this included ceding the territory west of the Rhine River to the French and the Prussian Poland to the Russians.
Some people have also carried out in-depth analysis, believing that this would shrink the Kingdom of Prussia by more than half, which would make the unified empire more stable.
This is the biggest concern of the Junker aristocrats. If Austria only annexes a shrunken version of the Kingdom of Prussia, they will really suffer heavy losses.
The Kingdom of Prussia is larger than all the other principalities combined excluding Austria. The existence of such a large principality will obviously weaken the authority of the central government.
If Austria wants to dominate the new Holy Roman Empire, it must suppress the Kingdom of Prussia and keep it within a controllable range. The two sides are naturally opposed, and there is no possibility of compromise.
This view does not include shrewd politicians. Only they can clearly see how dire the situation would become after Austria unified Germany.
Politically, isolation would be inevitable, as a major Central European empire would naturally be viewed with hostility in Europe. Militarily, it would face enemies from all sides.
These enemies would come from both land and sea. Needless to say on land, by just looking at the map, they would know that they would have to simultaneously confront France and Russia.
The situation at sea is even worse. In the Mediterranean, the Austrian navy must fight against Britain and France; in the Baltic Sea, it must fight against the Russians; and in the Atlantic, it must fight against Britain and France at the same time.
This is without even considering smaller countries. In fact, Spain, Portugal, the Netherlands, and the Nordic Federation will all be Austria’s enemies. This is determined by geopolitics.
Except for Switzerland and Belgium, which are very likely to remain neutral, all that can be seen on the European continent are enemies, even the insignificant Montenegro and Greece are no exception.
No, Greece and Montenegro have already stood against Austria. Their dreams of becoming powerful nations have been blocked by Austria.
If it were not for having too many external enemies, why would Franz bother suppressing Russia only to let a Greater France emerge? Isn’t it to reduce pressure and divert everyone’s attention?
Only when Russia declined could Austria escape the predicament of fighting on two fronts. Even in the event of a blunder that triggers a full-scale European war, the eastern front could be resolved in the shortest possible time.
Provoking French ambitions and deliberately allowing the emergence of Greater France needs no further explanation.
They too are a common enemy of Europe. With two behemoths appearing simultaneously, European governments would instantly be dumbfounded, unable to devise a response strategy in the short term.
In this stalemate between two powers, no matter which one falls, the other will become the superpower of Europe. Who knows what to do then?
During this hesitation, the situation will change.
To put it bluntly, this is a gamble. Franz is betting that after the unification of Germany, he can first complete the internal integration. Then, through diplomatic means, he can provoke internal contradictions in Greater France, and eventually subjugate France with national strength.
The French, on the other hand, are betting that the French military is stronger and can directly defeat the unified Germany on the battlefield after establishing Greater France.
The existence of the Austro-French alliance, apart from mutual needs, also implies an intention to jointly eliminate other competitors. Neither side will be at ease to fight a decisive battle without first dealing with other competitors.
Although there is no idiom in Europe that says “while the snipe and the clam are fighting, the fisherman benefits,” everyone understands this principle.
Obviously, this is not known by the Prussian government. If they had known that France and Austria had formed an alliance, they would probably have no intention of stirring up any “Greater Prussia” plan, but would instead quickly find others to huddle together for warmth.
Foreign Minister Mackeit sneered, “By your reasoning, we should just hand over Silesia? Don’t forget, the Austrians have also proposed to purchase Prussian Saxony.
This kind of compromise and concession will only embolden them. At what point do we draw the line? If we do compromise, how will the government explain it to the people?”
Chief of General Staff Moltke refuted, “Of course, it’s not a unilateral cession. We can conduct an exchange of interests with Austria. Right now, we need Austria’s support or at least tacit permission…”
…
Looking at the crowd arguing endlessly, the atmosphere was very disharmonious. The military advocated compromise, and the government advocated toughness. It seemed that the order was reversed.
This was indeed reversed. At first, it was the government officials who advocated compromise, and the military advocated a tough response. However, with the change in the situation, this situation has reversed.
In fact, this is just a continuation of the power struggle in the Prussian government. The civilian officials are now at an absolute disadvantage in the power struggle within the government, with decision-making power falling into the hands of the military. Naturally, they were unwilling to accept defeat and sought to cause trouble.
In the face of power, many bottom lines ceased to exist. The civilian officials had reached a critical juncture of life and death. Once the London negotiations concluded, with the military bolstered by their great victory over Russia, their voice in the government would further strengthen.
With victory in hand, the military naturally advocated for stability. As for the aftereffects of ceding territory, they were not actually that severe.
Conceding territory also depends on how it is conceded. As long as it is done properly, the losses can be controlled within a certain range. What the Kingdom of Prussia lacks now is not land, but population, especially Germans.
With East Prussia depopulated, there is an urgent need for people to fill the void. The newly occupied areas also require immigrants to stabilize the localities. By relocating the population and finances from the ceded lands, Austria could simply take over an empty territory.
This would still fulfill the agreement, leaving the Austrian government with no recourse. The initial agreement was only to cede Silesia, with no stipulation about including the population and property therein.
If they wanted to cause trouble, they could even leave behind a portion of the population, transferring all local industries under their names, and then engage in non-violent non-cooperation.
In this society where private property is sacred and inviolable, what law states that people cannot legally choose non-cooperation? The Austrian government would be powerless.
Of course, this powerlessness would only be temporary. People always find solutions, especially once they discard scruples. Many methods could then resolve the issue.
There was another unspoken reason behind the military’s shift in stance — the Junker nobility needed labor to cultivate their lands. In this era, the degree of mechanization was still low, and agriculture’s demand for labor was far from trivial.
East Prussia was the Junker nobility’s stronghold, but now it lacked people, leaving them unable to find sufficient labor to resume production.
There were also the newly occupied areas, where a lot of the land would fall into the hands of the Junker nobles through post-war rewards, also requiring labor for cultivation.
Without locals, relying entirely on the indigenous population for farming would pose a major language barrier issue.
Furthermore, noble governance over regional domains necessitates having an established foundation. Should the indigenous populace rise up in defiance, they would require individuals from their own ranks to quell such insurrection.
Silesia, wrested from Austrian control, was an industrialized region dominated by capitalist interests superseding those of the landed aristocracy. Thus, its potential cession posed no threat of losses to the Junker nobility.
The Prussian Saxon region was also more or less the same, its economy developed quite well, however, their incorporation into the Kingdom of Prussia was too recent for the Junker aristocrats to establish a firm grip over the region.
The civilian officials are different. To compete with the military, they formed an alliance with the domestic capitalists. As the spokesperson for the interests of the bourgeoisie in the government, they naturally have to protect the interests of the bourgeoisie now.
In theory, if the population and property are transferred, the losses of the Kingdom of Prussia can be minimized. Ordinary people can also receive compensation from the government, which seems to be a good idea.
However, the interests of the capitalists cannot be guaranteed. Factories cannot just be built anywhere. Even if all conditions are met, they will have to rebuild their network of contacts and sales networks after changing regions.
This is not something that the government’s compensation can make up for. In the process of this change, they are very likely to be replaced by others.
